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Hurricane Joaquin

October 2, 2015

 

Hurricane Joaquin Forecasted. 

 

Hurricane Joaquin has been a huge headache to meteorologists everywhere. Computer models used by meteorologists have gone from being all in on a solution that would bring Joaquin into the Carolinas, then models go all in on a solution taking the storm completely out to sea, which is the thinking behind the forecast put out by Forecasting Consultants...But to continue this headache, as the forecast below is being written a new model run has been coming in showing the possibility again that Joaquin may get uncomfortably close to the coast of southern New England toward the beginning of next week. This will be monitored further and compared with other models during the day today, but we will continue on with our original thinking... 

 

Hurricane Joaquin will finally start to exit the Bahamas during the day on Friday, after remaining nearly stationary at category 4 strength for over 24 hours. Once Joaquin moves north of the Bahamas, it will gain speed and slowly lose strength. Joaquin will move northward and then northeast, with the island of Bermuda becoming the next possible location to be sideswiped by the storm. The track will likely move west of Bermuda, and then continue out to sea, away from the east coast of the US (again the continuation of the monitoring of this systems track will occur as new data brings Joaquin a little closer to the New England coast). While direct impact is unlikely, indirect impacts, such as increase in wave height, rip currents, and possibly coastal flooding along the east coast of the US is possible over the weekend. 

 

As most of our focus has been on Joaquin and the storms ever changing forecasted path, a very dangerous and historic pattern is setting up for the southern Mid Atlantic and the south east of the US. This event is extremely likely and has not wavered from model run to model run. Rainfall from a stalled out front will drift back inland during the day Friday, the same front that had dropped 5-10 inches of rain in some locations from North Carolina through Maine earlier in the week. Light to Moderate rain from southern New England through New Jersey is expected Friday into early Saturday, along with below average temperatures and gusty winds over 40 mph at times. Breezy and cool and cloudy conditions should continue he rest of the weekend. Further south is where the most dangerous event occurs. Starting in North Carolina and Virginia Friday, pivoting to South Carolina and eastern Georgia Saturday and Sunday before exiting early Monday, an extremely heavy band of rain will be present. Pumping into the tropical moisture available due to Joaquin, rainfall totals in most of these locations exceeding 4" of rainfall, some locations exceeding 12-18" with even more very localized areas picking up over two feet of rain. This, on top of heavy totals from earlier this week will create a deadly scenario, with extreme flooding and flash flooding, uprooting of trees, and power outages will all be expected and likely to occur. 

 

So, it is great news that we look to have escaped the wrath of Joaquin, but Virginia, North and South Carolina, and eastern Georgia have to be extremely aware of what is heading toward them, and prepare for a historic rainfall event to close the week and weekend. 

 

For any updates or changes to the forecast and the track of Hurricane Joaquin, please check back here or contact Forecasting Consultants LLC directly. We will continue to monitor computer trends to make sure a shift back to the coast, should it occur, will not catch anyone off guard.

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