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A tropical storm colliding with a cold front, looks to dampen the Fourth of July for a majority of t

Tropical Storm Arthur colliding with a cold front, looks to dampen the Fourth of July for a majority of the East Coast of the United States.

How and will the rain affect your area?

Tropical Storm Arthur continues to meander of the East coast of Florida, with rain bands pin-wheeling into the coast and inland locations. These bands of heavy rain will continue through the overnight and early morning tomorrow, July 2, 2014, before the storm begins to lift to the north. Once Arthur starts to make some movement, all attention will turn to the intensity and predicted track. Current predictions place the storm moving north before turning to the north east. If this prediction is correct it will bring the center of the storm near the outer Cape off North Carolina, and once the storm brushes the Coast it will move north east, staying along the coastline.

Even though the center is expected to stay mostly away from the US (minus the outer Cape), its affects will be large:

Heavy surf and coastal erosion from Florida up through Maine toward Saturday, July 5th 2014.

Dangerous Rip-Currents from Florida (Wed July 2nd -Thurs July 3rd ) through New England (Wed July 2nd - Sat July 5th ).

Gusty winds near Tropical Storm force (Hurricane force possible along outer North Carolina) Thursday July 3rd through early Friday for Florida, Georgia, and the Carolina Coasts.

Tropical Storm gusts possible for the Delaware Maryland and Virginia coast Friday July 4th, afternoon.

Possible storm surge/coastal flooding along the Eastern Coast of US, especially locations near the outer banks of the Carolina's, Maryland, and Virginia.

Heavy rain expected directly along the coasts of Florida, South Carolina, North Carolina - through Thursday July 3rd, night. North Carolina and, the Delaware Maryland Virginia area, will also see heavy rain Thursday July 3rd through Friday July 4th morning hours. Then toward New Jersey, Long Island and the South East coast of New England, heavy rains will approach for Thursday July 3rd evening into Friday July 4th overnight hours.

Along with the Tropical system, a cold front will move into the Eastern Coast, steering Arthur away, this however, will also allow for added moisture to filter into the area, especially the New Jersey-New England locations.

Rainfall totals in all locations mentioned will vary greatly depending on heavier rain band location and exact position of Arthur, but could hit the 2"+ with as much as 5" in many areas especially the coast of North Carolina.

We do not recommend focusing on the exact center of Tropical Storm Arthur. The storm will affect locations further west of its center. Also, do not under estimate the strength and significance of "just a Tropical Storm' or "just a Category 1 Hurricane." These storms can and will likely produce widespread coastal damages, flooding, and power outages.

Please remember that once the storm passes, surf and rip tides will be an on going threat. This being a holiday weekend, please use extreme caution when at beaches and on waters.

With the Fourth of July upon us on Friday, there will be concerns with Firework shows and the weather conditions and sky visibility. Sky cover and rain event forecasts for the 4th looks to be poor to bad conditions for Eastern New England, Eastern Mid Atlantic, Eastern Carolina's and Georgia.

Stay safe, contact us for more information, and stay tuned in case there are any major changes.

We wish everyone a great Independence Day!


The Forecasting Consultants Team

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